Hurricane Milton strengthens into Category 5. Here’s what Florida can expect.

MIAMI – Hurricane Milton strengthened to a powerful Category 5 storm on Monday as it continued its path towards the west coast of Florida. 
With the 11 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Milton packed maximum sustained winds of 165 mph and was about 630 miles from Tampa. It was moving eastward at 9 mph. 
Milton is one of the strongest hurricanes by wind speed in the Atlantic Basin. There have only been five Atlantic hurricanes on record with wind speeds higher: Allen in 1980 with 190 mph, Dorian in 2019 with 185 mph winds, Wilma in 2005 with 185 mph, Gilbert in 1988 with 185 mph and the Labor Day Hurricane in 1935 with 185 mph.   
The National Hurricane Center had issued a tropical storm watch for Florida’s east coast from Flamingo north to the St. Lucie/Indian River County line.
A hurricane warning is in effect from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay.
A hurricane watch continues for the Dry Tortugas, Lake Okeechobee, Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonta Beach, Florida east coast from St. Lucie/Indian River County line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River.
A tropical storm warning had been issued for the Florida Keys, Florida’s west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach and from Florida’s west coast from north of the mouth of Suwanee River to Indian Pass.
Milton grew into a Category 5 hurricane Monday morning.
The storm is expected to weaken to a Category 3 when it makes landfall on Florida’s Gulf coast early Thursday. The most likely path suggests it could make landfall in or near the Tampa Bay area.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency in 35 of 67 counties ahead of Milton’s expected landfall. In the state of emergency bulletin, DeSantis included Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties. That number has since increased to 51 counties.    
The governor said Monday that 5,000 National Guard members have been deployed in response to Milton. An additional 3,000 members are expected to be mobilized before landfall.
Dangerous storm surge is expected, the hurricane center said. Tampa Bay, as well as the Anclote River to Englewood, Florida, could see storm surge as high as 15 feet. Charlotte Harbor and the area from Yankeetown to the Anclote River, as well as the area from Englewood to Bonita Beach, could see as much as 10 feet of surge.
Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee could see up to 7 feet, while the Suwannee River to Yankeetown, Chokoloskee to Flamingo could get up to 5 feet of storm surge. Dry Tortugas could hit 4 feet surge.
“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the hurricane center said.
“Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Thursday,” the hurricane center said. “This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.”
The ongoing rounds of showers and storms will prime Florida soils for what will likely be an increasing flood risk set to continue into the week ahead.     
South Florida received a “one-two punch” with the system. A weaker and non-tropical area of low pressure began to swing through on Sunday and continued on Monday, bringing South Florida’s first round of heavy rain and some flooding. By Tuesday, there will be a slight break with a few storms across the area.   
The second “punch” will be Milton. The storm is expected to bring more heavy rain and windy weather. 
Depending on its track, Milton could bring tropical storm conditions early Wednesday for most of South Florida; however, the Florida Keys could see these conditions earlier.
For now, South Florida’s main threat continues to be the risk of rainwater flooding, with 4 to 7 inches or more looking likely across the area. 
South Florida is under a flood watch through Thursday.